100 Stories on Thailand 013

Thailand braces for more economic woes

(CNN) -- As political protests ebb in Bangkok, business worries mount for Thailand and companies doing business there.

Once a "Tiger economy" that grew at a brisk 10 percent a year during much of the 1990s, the Southeast Asian nation's economy is expected to shrink nearly 3 percent this year -- the most

among developing East Asian nations -- according to a World Bank forecast released shortly before protests erupted last week.

It is the first time that Thailand's economy has been predicted to shrink since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

Now economic predictions are expected to erode further as the Thai currency, the baht, continues to fall and credit rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's consider downgrading the nation's debt rating.

"The big issue is whether this will affect general investment in Thailand, especially in the automotive industry," said Matthew L. Hildebrandt, an economist for JPMorgan in Singapore.

For foreign companies "already operating there, they may think twice about expanding. ... For companies not there already, they may think twice."

Dubbed "the Detroit of the East," the Thai automotive industry already is taking a pounding because of the global slowdown in auto sales. The industry earns 12 percent of the nation's gross

domestic product. BMW, General Motors, Honda, Isuzu and Toyota all have assembly plants in Thailand, which is the second-largest maker of pickups, according to the Thailand Automotive Institute.

"One incident like this may not stop someone from investing here, but this thing has been dragging on for three years," Hildebrandt said.

Taku Kimoto, general manager of automotive market researcher JD Powers Asia Pacific, said the unrest could affect the domestic market for automobiles, but is less likely to affect exports. "That is wholly dependent on the situation in overseas markets, not the local market," he said.

The tourism industry, which employs 2 million people, has proved remarkably resilient to past disruptions such as the Asian SARS outbreak, the 2004 Asian tsunami and the 2006 political

coup in Thailand, said Ho Kwon Ping, chairman and chief executive officer of Banyan Tree Holdings, which owns a number of luxury hotels and spas in Thailand.

"So far, there have been no cancellations whatsoever" during the Easter and local Thai New Year holidays, Ho said of the popular vacation times that coincided with the violent protests.

"The real issue is whether there will be a decline in the pickup of business (after)," he said. "I expect business will pick up, assuming (the political situation) doesn't get worse and worse."

FACTBOX-Five political risks to watch in Thailand

Tue Dec 15, 2009
* POLITICAL INSTABILITY

Thailand remains bitterly polarised. A divisive political
conflict, between royalists, urban elites and the military on

one side, and mainly rural supporters of former Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra on the other, shows no sign of ending. Since
Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup, Thailand has gone through

six heads of government and faced several disruptive showdowns,
including a damaging siege of Bangkok's airports late last year
and the forced cancellation of an Asian summit. Tensions have

been raised further by the overt support shown to Thaksin by
Hun Sen, prime minister of neighbouring Cambodia.

 
Key issues to watch:

 -- Strength of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's coalition
government. Abhisit's coalition remains shaky and it is

uncertain whether it could win a second term when elections 
areheld. If Abhisit's popular support increases, this would be

broadly positive for Thai markets. But if pro-Thaksin parties
look like returning to power, this would be market-negative
because efforts by "yellow shirts" to topple it -- by any means
-- would resume.

 -- The next flashpoint will be January when the pro-Thaksin
United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), or "red

shirts", are planning a big push to oust the government, vowing
to stage a prolonged rally in Bangkok at a critical juncture

for the exiled billionaire. The protest is due to take place at
the same time as a televised censure debate against the

embattled government, where the UDD's parliamentary arm, the
Puea Thai party, will pile on the pressure in a bid to force

house dissolution. The rally will also take place just a few
weeks ahead of a verdict on whether Thaksin should be allowed
to get his hands on some $2.2 billion of his frozen assets.

 
* THE KING'S HEALTH

 The 81-year-old King Bhumibol has been in hospital since
Sept. 19. His illness has focused attention on what will happen

when his reign comes to an end. A central issue in Thailand's
political conflict is what role the monarchy and unelected

elites should have in running the country. Many "red shirts"
blame officials close to the monarchy -- in particular Privy

Councillor Prem Tinsulanonda -- for undermining Thaksin and
backing the 2006 coup. Bhumibol is widely respected by all

sides in Thailand's political conflict, so his political
influence is accepted by Thais. But his son and presumed heir,

Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, does not yet command the same
popular support as his father. Many Thais and political

analysts fear if the crown passes to Vajiralongkorn while
Thailand's political divisions remain unresolved this could

encourage opposing factions to intensify their struggle, with
highly destabilising consequences. [ID:nSP507497]

 Key issues to watch:

 -- Updates on the health of the king. If his health
worsens, this would be negative for markets. A troubled

succession could have a major negative impact on stocks .SETI
and the baht THB= and raise the risk of a sovereign
downgrade.

 -- Extent to which Prem remains a focus of protests.
Thailand's strict lese majeste laws mean any discussion of the

succession and the monarchy's role is heavily curtailed. Partly
for this reason, many "red shirts" have focused their protests

on Prem, the most senior royal adviser. If he continues to be a
flashpoint for protests, this is a sign the succession may be
less smooth and orderly than many hope.

  
MAP TA PHUT INDUSTRIAL ESTATE

 On Dec. 2, a court ordered the suspension of 65 plants at
the huge Map Ta Phut industrial estate, home to the world's

eighth-biggest petrochemicals hub, after a campaign by locals
and environmentalists concerned about health problems in the

area. The situation has arisen in part because of the failure
of government to set up a body tasked by the 2007 constitution
with ensuring industrial plants respect health legislation.

 Key issues to watch:

 -- The episode has raised concern among investors about the
business climate and government competence. It could dent
profits at top conglomerate Siam Cement SCC.BK and leading

energy firm PTT PTT.BK. The central bank has said economic
growth could be cut by 0.5 percentage point in 2010 if the
problem drags on.

 * CORRUPTION AND GOVERNANCE

 Thailand is widely perceived to have become more corrupt
during the past five years of instability. Investors closely

watch corruption perception indices from the World Governance
Indicators project, Transparency International and others.

Signs of a further worsening will not have a short-term impact
on markets but will damage investment in the longer run.

 Key issues to watch:

 
-- Latest estimates of level of Thai corruption. In
Transparency International's 2009 Corruption Perceptions Index,

released last month, Thailand fell to 84th place among 180
countries, from 80th the previous year.

 
* THE SOUTHERN INSURGENCY

 The insurgency by separatist Muslims in Thailand's southern
provinces has become more bloody in recent years, but violence

has been almost wholly confined to the south and so has had
little impact on markets. That looks unlikely to change, but
the conflict has the potential to become more worrying for
investors.

 Key issues to watch:

 -- The danger of escalation. So far the insurgency remains
a local, ethno-nationalist conflict. There is no sign al Qaeda

sympathisers have been able to gain any influence over the
insurgency, or that militants have any intention of targeting

foreign businesses or the crucial tourism industry. If that
changes, Thai markets and the economy could be badly hit. 
(Compiled by Andrew Marshall, Martin Petty and Alan Raybould)
Reuters India

An Information to everybody..

Fact
Freedom Against Censorship Thailand
Sign the pettition 22-11-06

THAI GOVERNMENT MOVES TO SUPPRESS MEDIA

23 Apr 2009
INDEX ON CENSORSHIP

Following the anti-government protests, the Thai government has begun to crack down on the opposition media. Sinfah Tunsarawuthasks if the heavy-handed tactics will incite further chaos.

Radio and television stations in Thailand have been warned by authorities against airing anti-government criticism that could cause civil unrest.

Satit Wonghnongtaey, who is in charge of government’s media policy, told reporters that the government needed to shut down these media, suggesting they had been used to incite unrest in the country.

Among the targets were D station, a satellite television channel run by supporters of former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra,

who form an anti-government bloc known as the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD). Earlier this month, police blocked the broadcasts of the station and later raided the head offices in Bangkok.

The government has alleged that the DAAD had used the satellite D station as its key tool in mobilising people across the country to raise their voices against the Abhisit government, and in calling provincial people to join the rally in Bangkok.

National media has reported that the authorities have raided and seized transmitters of at least three community radio stations in the north and another in the northeast — the two regions of the country where the DAAD’s support is strongest.

Authorities have also warned other similar radio stations not to air anti-government criticism. Critics say more crackdown on these radio stations could be expected.

Opposition websites have also become a target. Thai Netizen Network (TNN), an Internet freedom campaign group, said in a statement on Tuesday that the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology has blocked 66 ‘political websites that aired views different from those in power’ since 18 April.

In a separate statement on the same day, Campaign on Popular Media Reform, which campaigns on free news media, said the closure of D station constituted the ‘blockage of freedom of information and

freedom of opinion of local people and those who have different political views — an act which could intensify the conflict and force those people to go underground’.

The country plunged into political turmoil in late March 2009 after the DAAD protested, calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva,

claiming his government came into power in December 2008 only with the military’s support, and without ever winning an election.

The protests culminated on 11 April, when DAAD protesters, clad in their signature red clothes, broke into a beach resort hotel in Pattaya, where Thailand was hosting a meeting of members of the

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The meeting was called off immediately, and foreign leaders were flown out of the country. The following day, after increasing tension, Abhisit declared a

state of emergency, as the DAAD was holding its key protests in front of the Government House in Bangkok. The state of emergency remains in force on 23 April in Bangkok and neighbouring towns.

Applying a specific provision under the Public Administration in Emergency Situation Decree of 2005, Abhisit declared that the emergency situation in Bangkok was ’serious’. This provision allows the

authorities to arrest and detain any person suspected of inciting the unrest without charge for a maximum 30 days.

The provision also means the authorities can search any building or office, and seize any equipment suspected of being used for such incitement — a measure they are thoroughly embracing.

After the declaration, military forces lined the streets of the capital with automatic rifles and tanks. In response, the DAAD called off its rally on 14 April, claiming that it wanted to avoid any loss of life.

Thai people had expected that such retreat of the DAAD would have returned the country to normality. However, on 17 April, Sondhi Limthongkul, founder of the ASTV Manager media group, was shot in central Bangkok while he was riding in his car with his security guard and driver.

Sondhi is a key leader of an anti-Thaksin group known as the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which had earlier staged street protests against both the Thaksin government and successive pro-Thaksin governments.

Sondhi was wounded, with shrapnel his head. However he and his security guard are recuperating in hospital. The driver remains in intensive care.Though Sondhi’s role in the PAD could have subjected him

to a political assassination attempt, police have said they do not rule out business or personal motivations for the attack.

In May 1992, the government blocked television coverage of the anti-government protests. This censorship led to more people joining the protests, and bloodshed later in the month, forcing the government to step down.

Thai television, the main source of news for people across the country, is all too easily controlled by the government, with all of the main stations either owned or operated by the state. Controlling news media,

particularly the television, has always been a key strategy of those in power in time of political turmoil. However, such a policy could also lead to greater opposition to the rulers.

FBI Investigating Carradine's Death

June 5, 2009
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

LARRY KING, HOST: Tonight, breaking David Carradine news -- the FBI's involved and is investigating the star's bizarre death. His family says the "Kill Bill" star couldn't or wouldn't commit suicide. Apparently, he didn't.

Attorney Mark Geragos, the attorney for the actor's brother, Keith Carradine, is here and it's exclusive.

Plus, Peter Falk's family tragedy -- his child takes his stepmother to court just to see her own father. But the beloved star of "Colombo" doesn't even know it. He's suffering from advanced dementia.

His daughter is here exposing details from the bitter tug of war that got all of Hollywood talking.

And then the deadly honeymoon -- a newlywed husband finally admits to a role in his wife's drowning. But he'll spend just one year behind bars.

What's wrong with all this?

That's what her outraged family wants to know.

It's all next on LARRY KING LIVE.

All right. Let's get right to it.

"Extra's" Jerry Penacoli is here, along with David Carradine's manager, Chuck Binder, and attorney Mark Geragos. Mark, by the way, represents David's brother, Keith Carradine, who has asked for Mark's help.

And what's this about the FBI?

MARK GERAGOS, ATTORNEY FOR KEITH CARRADINE: Well, because the death took place on a foreign soil, FBI traditionally cannot just jump right in. So the family -- Keith and other family members met with the FBI today, with the idea that they're going to initiate the process that takes place where, here from the U.S. you try to get a hold of what's called the legate, which is the legal liaison in Bangkok. Get them to initiate some kind of an investigation there.

The family and Keith specifically doesn't for a minute think that he was suicidal.

KING: FBI agents can't go over there, though, and conduct... GERAGOS: FBI agents can go there. But there is a process that you have to go through. The family talking with the FBI initiates that process. Then they have to go, they get permission. They deal through the legal channels. Read More

Thai Government spends more money to promote itself

Dec. 11 2009
While the government has told us that they will wage a war against Thaksin using the state media (see here, here, and here) but also the government is also spending money to promote itself and its policies.

According to Matichon Weekly, October 16-22, page 8, we can see an increase in the advertising budget PM Office's and Defence Ministry. From January-September 2008,

the PM's Office spent 534 Million baht, but this increased to 734 Million Baht for the same period in 2009. You also have an increase for the Defence Ministry as between January-September 2008, 148 Million baht was spent, but this was increased to 209 Million Baht for the same period in 2009.*

BP: Now, all governments use public funds to promote themselves and the overall amount is small, but with a poor economy the question must be asked, should the government be increasing the money it spends promoting itself?

Is this the best use of the government resources now? Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva often appears in the advertisements himself and at times, his face is literally everywhere.

*There is no breakdown on the Defence advertising budget, but as noted here, they have basically promoting the government and Abhisit fronts the commercials. As Pravit wrote about at the time:But this is Thailand,

a country where writing about this or that general makes for best-selling books and where the  Army runs a fat campaign to educate the populace about democracy - despite its checkered record of staging one coup after the other.

The latest campaign, which is very visible, involved wrapping a huge campaign sticker in orange, black and white on one whole BTS Skytrain, on the inside and outside of carriages.

The campaign was dubbed "Sustainable Thinking" by the Army and the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) and involved a guideline on mental "immunity"

which involves: accessing news with mindfulness, spending money reasonably, |carrying out your profession |with perseverance and making one's family sufficiently |happy.

"Mindfulness + reason = immunity" was its main motto.

Alright, maybe those messages - which also appeared on at least two large billboards along Bangkok's expressways - may not be the worst messages to convey.  But is that really the job of the Army and Isoc?

Earlier this year, the Army was paid by Cabinet to go to rural areas - mostly regions where ousted and convicted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra is popular - to educate people about "democracy". Sounds like a bad joke doesn't it?
See More

100 Stories on Thailand 012

New Year celebrations make a splash
This week, Bangladesh, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nepal and parts of India are ushering in their New Year.

According to the traditional Bengali Calendar, a solar calendar used in West Bengal and Bangladesh, we have just begun the year 1416,

while the Theravada Buddhist lunisolar calendar, used in Laos and Thailand has just entered the year 2552. In Cambodia it's now 2553, while it is 1371 in Myanmar.

There's been no shortage of color and spectacle to mark the occasion. In Nepal, revelers ended up covered in vermilion powder at the "Bisket Jatra" festival,

while in Thailand, Laos and Myanmar, traditional celebrations involved revelers getting more than a little damp during "water-splashing" festivals.