Opposition Raises Specter of Civil War in Thailand

04 MAY 2009

CHIANG MAI, Thailand -- Thailand calls itself the Land of Smiles, and is known for its tropical beaches, beautiful mountains, good food and friendly people.

But that may soon change. While the happy-go-lucky image of Thailand may be hard for many to shake, political observers -- and the government -- are beginning to take the possibility of a civil war much more seriously.

On April 21, Jakrapob Penkair -- a key leader of the opposition United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and reputedly the man behind this month's violent protests in Bangkok and Pattaya -- announced in a BBC interview that the struggle was not over.

The UDD, Jakrapob said, would begin using different tactics, possibly even armed attacks. "I believe the room for unarmed and non-violent means to resolve Thailand's problem is getting smaller every day," he told the BBC.

He went on to call for new general elections to allow a democratically elected government to take power. Jakrapob was previously a spokesman for Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister ousted in a 2006 coup and currently in exile.

He was subsequently a minister in the People's Power Party government, until he was forced to resign in May 2008, due to charges of lèse majesté for giving a talk critical of the country's monarchy at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand.

Rather than turn himself in to the government, as many other UDD leaders did after the protests were crushed on April 13, Jakrapob fled to an undisclosed location abroad. Thaksin, the nominal leader of the UDD, has given no clear indication that he supports an armed insurgency.

Much was made of his call for a "people's revolution" in early April, but some analysts say the statement was taken out of context. Thaksin, they say, was calling for more of a Philippines-style "People's Power" movement than an armed revolt.

Nevertheless, several opposition Puea Thai Party members have made public comments about moving "underground" and using "covert action." The current government does not want either.

After forcing the demonstrators off the streets of Bangkok, security forces moved quickly to dismantle the UDD's network, both in the capitol and in the provinces. Provincial leaders were arrested, and local radio and television stations linked to the UDD movement were shut down.

The UDD, however, has not given up. A small demonstration was held in Bangkok on April 25, only days after the government rescinded its emergency decree. The group says it plans to hold a series of protests in the coming weeks.

UDD leaders say these protests will be peaceful and held in accordance with the law. The government does not seem so sure, giving signs that it is worried about possible underground activities by the UDD and their supporters.

In the past few days, several government figures -- including Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is also responsible for internal security -- have cited intelligence reports of political organizing, which they allege is similar to the underground methods previously used by the now-defunct Communist Party of Thailand (CPT).

Some politicians have even made the leap to saying that the UDD is following a communist ideology. The CPT waged a guerrilla war against the Thai government from the 1960s to the 1980s, when most of its members defected to the government during an amnesty.

The government has said that it is keeping a watch on former CPT members, several of whom were also members of Thaksin's now-barred Thai Rak Thai party. There may be good reason to. An April 15 article in Asia Times Online cited a UDD organizer who claims that Thaksin had weapons secretly smuggled into

northeastern Thailand through Cambodia over the past two years. The transportation and distribution of the weapons was possibly carried out by former members of the CPT. The military appears to not be taking any chances.

In its mid-year reshuffle announced on April 17, it effectively removed any remaining Thaksin supporters from positions of influence. The move was aimed at making it very difficult for pro-UDD elements to stage a coup or support the UDD militarily.

This is a concern, since much of the military's rank and file are from areas where support for Thaksin and the UDD are strong. In another possible indication of concern, Gen.

Prem Tinsulanonda, currently privy councilor and a former prime minister and army commander, recently gave his public support for the creation of a new military command to oversee internal security in the northeast.

The northeast, along with the north, represents an area where the UDD's support is the strongest, and is the rumored destination for the smuggled arms. It was also an area of strong support for the CPT. Nevertheless, it is one thing to march and cheer at a demonstration, and quite another to engage in armed revolt.

The rhetoric of their leaders aside, it remains unclear whether Thais are committed enough in their desire for political change -- or in their love for Thaksin -- to take that step.
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Politics takes a murky turn

The Red Shirts may seem to have been cowed by the military crackdown, but don’t expect the crisis in Bangkok to be over.

IN POLITICALLY polarised Thailand, it is easier to find a tank on the streets of Bangkok than a Thai who is able to give a neutral take on what’s happening to his country.

So I tracked down Paul Quaglia, a Bangkok-based American security consultant, to get his views on the recent events that thrust Thailand into the international limelight.

Here’s an excerpt of my interview with Quaglia, the founding partner of PSA Asia Pacific, a security consulting cum risk assessment firm, and a 20-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Is it game over for the Red Shirts (the pro-Thaksin Shinawatra movement which on April 14 ended its three-week street campaign to force the resignation of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva after he ordered a military crackdown)?

No, the game isn’t over for the Red Shirts who in many ways tried to mimic the Yellow Shirts (the anti-Thaksin movement) to show that there was double standard in their treatment.

And the Red Shirts have succeeded in a way in showing that there was a military crackdown on them and that their leaders were arrested, while the Yellow Shirts leaders remain free.

I don’t think the political crisis is over because we still got two groups that have the ability to attract people, and a political agenda that hasn’t been fulfilled.

Depending on what happens with Abhisit’s administration for the next few months, we could see more protests from either side.

Will Abhisit last his term?

Abhisit is in a difficult position. He is a terrifically qualified prime minister. He is the right man for this job but he is in it at the wrong time (unprecedented political polarisation in Thailand at a time when the global economic crisis is devastating many South-east Asian economies).

He came in with a coalition government which he has trouble keeping happy – his junior coalition partners have designs on his job, they were sworn political enemies for several years before they defected with encouragement from the army to form this government. Abhisit has to deal with the political realities of his own coalition government.

What is your take on the Red Shirt protests in Bangkok?

Frankly, it was a bit exaggerated by the media. We had taxicabs that blocked off Victory Monument (a busy intersection). It was pretty nasty but it occurred during a holiday period (Songkran, the Thai New Year) where there was not really much traffic.

And we had the Red Shirts congregated at the prime minister’s office and near Victory Monument. But they were not running amok all over town as we saw last year (with the Yellow Shirts) when there were gun fights on the expressways and mobs going to different government ministries.

When the military and red-shirted protesters clashed violently, there were almost as many reporters covering the event as soldiers. There were a lot of tight shoots focusing on burning tyres and NGV trucks which exaggerated the actual width and breadth of the Red Shirt protest.

Yes, there was violence. But it wasn’t Bangkok under siege. A state of emergency was not required to keep peace and order which existed virtually everywhere in the country except (in pockets of Bangkok).

What’s your take on the hit on Sondhi Limthongkul (the co-leader of the Yellow Shirts)?

The how is more important than the why. Historically in Thailand when someone is the subject of a politically motivated assassination, it is done relatively quiet and off the screen. The most recent example is Somchai Neelaphaijit (a Muslim human rights lawyer) who just disappeared. It took a while even to figure out that he was killed.

(Sondhi’s hit) was a dramatic open and notorious assault — three guys in a pickup truck with assault rifles spraying bullets (at Sondhi’s vehicle) at a major intersection (in Bangkok).

The how tells me that not only this was an attempt to shoot Sondhi but also to send a message that someone is willing to take dramatic violent methods to make a point.

And Sondhi, who is no shrinking violet, has been relatively reticent since the assault. He hasn’t said much – no bedside press conference, no finger pointing, no “I am going to get your guys for this”.

So I think he himself is surprised and worried at the level of approval that might have been required to have this (the assassination bid) done.
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Abhisit is copying me

Jan 26, 2009
BANGKOK - THAILAND'S deeply divisive ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra on Sunday launched an attack on new Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's first month in office, accusing his foe of copying his policies.

Speaking on Thai television from an undisclosed location abroad, Thaksin accused Mr Abhisit's government of espousing populist policies such as loans for the poor and expanded social security simply to win over detractors.

Only a couple of well-wishers showed up at the new anti-government satellite TV station broadcasting the phone interview, a week ahead of a planned rally by Thaksin's supporters that will be a test of his continuing popularity at home.

'I am not concerned who will copy my policies, because I am more concerned about people,' Thaksin said on Democracy Television.

'But even if it is the same policy, if the people who implement it are different people it could have a different outcome,' said the twice-elected premier who was ousted in a military coup in September 2006.

'When I was in government, I listened to people who really had problems ... I did not just stand at the top of the tower issuing policies.'

Oxford-educated Abhisit came to power in a parliamentary vote on Dec 15 after a court dissolved the Thaksin-linked ruling People Power Party (PPP), bringing an end to six months of disruptive anti-government protests.

A number of small parties and former PPP lawmakers defected to Mr Abhisit's Democrat Party-led coalition, enabling it to narrowly win the vote and draining the exiled Thaksin of power less than a year after his allies won elections.

Mr Abhisit has announced a US$3.28 billion (S$4.93 billion) financial stimulus package aimed at reviving Thailand's flagging economy after a devastating week of airport protest blockades in November and December last year.

The package includes hand-outs of 2,000 baht (S$86) to lower income families, tax cuts, subsidies and loans for education, which the government's new finance team says will stimulate consumer spending.

'The government has pushed forward measures to restore the economy and help the people,' Mr Abhisit said in his weekly television address on Sunday.Thaksin said however that if the policies are only used for political gain, 'the country will be ruined'.

He also criticised the appointment to government of supporters of the People's Alliance for Democracy protest group which seized the airports, stranding hundreds of thousands of tourists and battering the economy.

Thailand remains deeply divided between those loyal to the ousted leader - known as the 'Red Shirts' - and his enemies in the Bangkok-based establishment and middle classes who want to rid the kingdom of his influence.

Thaksin was elected in 2001 and 2005, and was enormously popular with the rural and urban poor, who had previously been sidelined by politicians. But allegations of corruption and abuse of power dogged his time in office and he made some powerful enemies in the old elites in the palace, military, and bureaucracy who felt his enormous popularity usurped some of their power.

Thaksin has spent most his time since the coup in self-imposed exile abroad as corruption cases mounted against him, and he was in October last year sentenced in absentia to two years in jail for abuse of power. Urbane Abhisit - whose name means 'privileged' - has repeatedly failed to win over rural voters. -- AFP

straitstimes

Rights abuse? You wouldn't read about it

January 24, 2009

Harry Nicolaides was herded, shackled, into a Bangkok holding cell on Monday. He was sentenced to three years in prison for the contents of a single paragraph.

The Melbourne author's crime was to write a short passage referring to the private life of Thailand's crown prince in a self-published novel that sold only 10 copies.

He was sentenced under Thailand's draconian lese-majeste law, which forbids any frank discussion of the royal family. In the wake of the conviction, he threw himself on the mercy of the people he was accused of offending, petitioning the palace for a royal pardon.

On Wednesday, this newspaper reported that the Thai army had - on two separate occasions - pushed about 1000 Burmese boat people back into international waters.

The refugees were escaping from the Burmese regime's persecution of ethnic minorities. More than 500 are now said to be dead or missing.

The Thai military stands accused of detaining the refugees and beating and whipping them, before setting them adrift without motors or sufficient food and water.

The Government says it has launched an investigation, while the local army commander denied the accusations, arguing his men gave the refugees provisions and "helped them on their way".

Thailand's human rights reputation has taken a battering. These two incidents represent a serious challenge for the new Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, who says he is determined to restore his country's reputation after last year's political turmoil.

His Government came to power a month ago, after the dramatic occupation of Bangkok's international airport by protesters determined to overthrow the previous government.

The protesters crippled Thailand's lucrative tourism industry, and shredded its long-cultivated image as a foreigner-friendly destination.

Abhisit presents himself as an urbane and modern leader (and Oxford educated to boot), one who can guide Thailand through the international financial crisis, restore the rule of law, and repair the country's damaged image.

But the Nicolaides case and the humanitarian tragedy of the Burmese boat people are not isolated incidents that can easily be dealt with by public relations spin.

They relate to the role of two of the country's most powerful institutions - the monarchy and the army - which helped bring Abhisit to power.

The Government has placed protecting the monarchy's reputation at the top of its political agenda. Heightened political divisions over the past few years have generated increasing comment domestically and internationally about the political role of the royal family.

There is unprecedented discussion about the palace's support for the campaign waged by the People's Alliance for Democracy against Thailand's former government, which was democratically elected in December 2007.

www.smh.com.ac

Democrat Strategy: “Turn Red Shirt into Monsters-Like Thaksin”

January 3, 2009
Even as the red shirt are in the process of re-defining themselves into a fighting force for democracy, to the point that red shirt leader Veera said, “Thaksin will always have a special place in the red shirt hearts for helping bring democracy to the grassroots,

but from here on we will increasingly be about fighting for democracy and against the military proxy government of Abisit.”

Those words must have been like a stake into the heart of military proxies such as Abisit,because since last week, coming out of the proxy side is nothing but a bunch of fierce attacks of the red shirt starting with Mark who said-only a day or two after his American style accepting to the PM speech that he seek peace with all parts of society.

Mark said, “The red shirt are nothing but a bunch of fake protesters who are paid to gather for political means and nothing more.”

Those are strong words indeed as in every red shirt rally so far, the numbers gyrates, not with the interest but with how big the venue is-meaning when the venue can accommodate about 100,000 about that amount showed up and when it can accommodate half that, about half that showed up.

To stop and think just a minuet how much money it would take if Mark was right and the people are being paid to attend, the amount staggers the mind and really turns Mark opinion into nothing but a lie mighty quickly.

In the mean time, all sort of people in the hundreds-from government ministers, to academic, to industry leaders, to politicians and others-have joined in a major chorus that the red shirt should stop for the sake of the country. Many of these, are the same people that only a month ago cheered the PAD occupation of the airports.

Yet Mark isn’t the only one painting the red shirt into a “monster”, Thep Turk just today told the much respected Thai Rath mass circulated that “I will seek to talk to the red shirt boss and that is Thaksin to see if I can reason with him to stop the red shirt political activities that is hurting the country.”

Again very strong words that just boils down the red shirt into a proxy of Thaksin interest. Thep Turk went further and said, “But Thaksin is welcome to return to Thailand but must face the just judicial system here.”

Again Thap Turk invokes strong feelings at the red shirt who after the coup, on countless cases, have had to witness a Thai judiciary system gone “active in hunting down the forces of democracy.”

It is getting way too much-this insistence that the Thai courts are fair-to the point that today Sae Nand, the one of the key man pulling the Mark’s government together and handles “Political Issues” for the coalition government, came out of no-where and said the privy council should be the one to appoint people to the Thai independent agencies like the Election Commission and the Anti-Corruption Body.

That must have hit some nerves at the red shirt who are trying to get prople elected to positions, not appointed-and certainly not by the privy council. Sae Nand action is nothing but a ploy tpo draw a response from the red shirt-against the privy-so it can use in the turning the red shirt into a monster.

Mark, followed by Thep Turn and now Sae Nand, are all doing what they can to paint the red shirt into a force for being much hated in the upper class of Thai society. By linking Thaksin to the red shirt, obsessively as they have been doing, is nothing but an attempt to kill the red shirt legitimacy, reducing it to a force that only seek to get special treatment for a corrupted figure-Thaksin.

We will all have to wait and see how the red shirt will respond to all of this.But scanning the international press, practically all still brand the red shirt as Thaksin supporters. Not a single one brand it as a force fighting for Democracy.

Even with all the democratic banners at the last gathering of about 50,000 red shirt with most carrying democratic banners and very few Thaksin, foreign press still haven’t changed their tune.

The game is, “make them look like they are just interested in getting Thaksin off the hook.”In fact, if one wants concrete evidenc of what is going on-minus the propaganda on both sides-the sign of the changing time came much earlier with red shirt TV.

In that there has to be a special fund raising to get money to get the red shirt TV channel going and today, we don’t know if the fund raising raised enough money or not because red shirt channel isn’t on the air yet.

If Thaksin is really behind the red shirt, a special donation of some 100 million baht for the TV station is really nothing for Thaksin, even these days of rumored that Thaksin is having money problems

But still the red shirt had to raise funds, and that seem clear enough that Thaksin and the red shirt do have some distance. And if this point isn’t clear enough, take the concept of the “phone in” which was use before to fill the venue with people.

Well there have been several rounds of gathering already that went on with no talk of a phone in by Thaksin.

And thousands and thousands still came to the meeting for protest. Veera, leader of the red shirt, said it simply, “We can always have a Thaksin phone in, but that isn’t what is important. What is important is that we gather to demand for democracy.”

thaiintelligentnews

`Growth Tigers'

Growth Tigers

As his country reeled, Bhumibol outlined his goals in his December 1997 birthday address. He urged Thailand to stop trying to become one of Asia's growth tigers.

So many projects have been implemented, so many factories have been built, that it was thought Thailand would become a little tiger, and then a big tiger, the king said. People were crazy about becoming a tiger.

Instead, he said, Thais needed to settle for an economy sufficient for their needs. We have to take a careful step backwards, he said.

Amid the carnage at the time, companies controlled by the king stood out for their transparency, Backman says in his book. Executives talked to creditors and discussed how to reschedule loans.

Siam Cement issued $2.5 billion of local currency debentures to replace foreign exchange loans and paid back all of its debts. No one was fired from its staff. ``We never asked for a haircut,''

Kan says. Different Story, The story was different elsewhere. Prachai Leophairatana, founder of Thai Petrochemical Industry Pcl, which was Thailand's biggest defaulter ever, stopped paying interest on $2.7 billion of debt in 1997.

He kept creditors and the government at bay for eight years before being forced out, enabling the company to be taken over and debt repaid.

Crown Property has embraced the king's philosophy of sufficiency, says Chirayu Isarangkun Na Ayuthaya, who as director general of the bureau is the king's chief money manager. That means investing in a few companies that are essential to the country's stability, he says.

The bureau's policy focuses on long-term and low-risk investments, Chirayu writes in The Crown Property Bureau on the Path of Sustainability.

The bureau chooses to invest in businesses that not only boost social and economic value but are also linked to the country's monarchy and the country's history.
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Town and Country Divide Runs Deep "POLITICS-THAILAND"

UDON THANI, Jan 11, 2009 (IPS) - Vendors at a bustling municipal market in this provincial city are fairly open about the need for Thailand to have a proper democracy with regular elections. In fact many of them wear red shirts to announce their political choice.

Phan Intapanya, who sells freshly harvested jasmine and sticky rice at a small shop, is typical of the men and women in this north-eastern city identifying with a cause that has deeply divided Thai politics between urban elite and rural poor. So is Amorn Rosana, who runs a shop that sells kitchenware.

‘’I have been wearing this colour since last year to show that I support political parties that want to come to power through elections,’’ says Phan, a mother of two, who dropped out of school after the fourth grade. ‘’We have to make our stand known. It is our right.’’

‘’There are many people here who are not wearing red today but support our movement,’’ adds Amorn, pointing to a woman selling flowers and to another chopping chicken at a poultry stand. ‘’They are becoming more political. They are realising the power of their vote.’’

Beyond this city, in the villages spread across the province, similar views are heard. ‘’We have now realised that with our votes we can control our parliamentarians and tell them what we want, not the other way around,’’ says Thanakorn Jantarasena, who grows rice and cucumber in a village 20 km south-west of Udon Thani. ‘’The old ways of parliamentarians ignoring voters cannot work any more.’’

Udon Thani’s ‘’red shirts’’ belong to one side of a bitter political feud that gripped this South-east Asian country through most of 2008. There are thousands of others with similar sympathies and sporting similar colours in the provinces of Ubon Ratchathani and Lampang, in the northern city of Chiang Mai and in areas in and around Bangkok.

On the other side of this divide are the supporters of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a movement supported by the urban middle class, entrenched elites, royalists, conservative bureaucrats and the army.
The PAD’s protests through 2008, including the forceful occupation of major state institutions, succeeded in crippling a government elected to power in December 2007.

Supporters of the PAD, who wear yellow shirts, a colour associated with the country’s revered monarch, have been openly hostile to electoral democracy. This right-wing movement scored in early December when a superior court delivered a verdict that forced the elected coalition government, led by the People Power Party (PPP), out of office.

Little wonder why the ‘’reds’’ here are raging at the way the new coalition government, led by the Democrat Party, emerged. After all, it was not born of a general election, but of parliamentarians bribed to switch sides to form a new coalition that has the support of the military.

‘’When the People Power Party was dissolved, people here were very upset; it was a bitter feeling for us because we had voted for it,’’ says Kwanchai Praipanna, who runs a community radio station that has become the rallying point for this region’s defenders of democracy. ‘’We learnt a lesson that we cannot rely on our parliamentarians anymore.’’

‘’We have to build a strong people’s movement from the grassroots because the vote matters to us,’’ Kwanchai added, during a break after his two-hour morning show broadcasting his views on local and national politics to a wide following of listeners over a 100 km radius. ‘’We have to challenge the PAD, the Democrat Party, the Bangkok media and even the military because they want governments without elections.’’

The PAD has been advocating a 'New Politics plan whereby 70 percent of parliamentary seats would be appointed, while the remaining 30 percent would be open for elections.

At the home of Kwanchai’s radio station - FM 97.50 - some five km outside this town, the walls are covered with pictures of one man who has inspired such thinking: former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a September military 2006 coup and now living in exile to evade arrest for a string of corruption cases slapped against him.

Kwanchai and the hundreds of other ‘’red shirts’’ who gather at the open, airy building, that serves as the studio, credit Thaksin for opening their eyes to the power of their votes during the 2001 and 2005 elections.
By voting for Thaksin’s party in those two elections, they received a raft of pro-poor policies that included a universal healthcare package and micro-credit schemes to open small businesses.

This political equation earned Thaksin wide support across north-east Thailand, home to the rural poor, who make up the largest constituency in the country. Phan, the rice vendor, speaks for many, when she says: ‘’The Thaksin government brought us many benefits than before. We learnt after the 2001 elections that we could get what we want if we voted for the correct party.’’

Such a political awakening among the often marginalised rural voters here began to emerge after the 2006 coup, Thailand’s 18th putsch, say observers of local politics here. It gathered pace, and become more open and vocal, following PAD’s campaign last year, which sneered at rural voters, calling them stupid and lacking in knowledge needed to exercise their franchise.

‘’It is something new that we are witnessing about politics here. The people see benefits of applying pressure from the bottom up to tell the government what we they want,’’ noted Arnon Sannan, editor of ‘Dan Isaan News,’ a Thai-language fortnightly. ‘’The voters here have realised that they can have some control over their lives and destiny through such a democratic system.’’

Yet this mental shift in the provinces is unappreciated in Bangkok, where right-wing, elite views currently dominate. ‘’We have been insulted, treated unfairly, looked down upon. This is political injustice, social injustice,’’ says Kamphan Pongpan, a former elected senator from Udon Thani.

‘’The people in Bangkok do not understand the change that is taking place here, our struggle, our views about democracy,’’ he added. ‘’The people here have begun to look for parliamentarians who reflect their ideas and their needs. They do not want to be controlled by the upper class in the capital.’’

IPSnews